Scenarios & Timelines

Mapping Future Outcomes Under Business-as-Usual, Fragmented Response, and Global Mobilization

Introduction

Every major turning point in history has hinged on a single truth: the decisions we make today echo across decades. As artificial intelligence accelerates automation and reshapes every profession, our collective choices — whether to act, to tinker at the edges, or to stand still — will define the world of tomorrow.

This page is your compass through three possible pathways:

Across seven horizons — from the next five years through mid-century — you’ll see the likely ripple effects in jobs, incomes, public finance, and social cohesion. Use these scenarios as both warning and inspiration: track milestones we’ve already passed, imagine inflection points ahead, and decide which future you want to help create.

1–5 Years: The Automation Inflection

Business-as-Usual

  • Automation displaces 10–20% of routine roles.
  • No levies on machine productivity; welfare budgets swell 15–25%.
  • Safety nets buckle — unemployment lines lengthen and protests erupt.
  • Political polarization deepens as populist movements capitalize on grievances.

Fragmented Response

  • OECD nations impose a 10–20% “automation dividend” tax; UBI pilots absorb 5–10% of GDP.
  • High-income workforce pivots to care, creative and maintenance sectors.
  • Developing nations see migration as jobless waves seek subsidy-rich states.
  • Tech multinationals relocate capital to low-tax jurisdictions, stoking tensions.

Global Mobilization

  • By 2027, G20 ratifies a unified AI revenue‐sharing framework; quarterly stipends begin.
  • Universal digital IDs and data trusts launch in 50+ countries.
  • Consumer confidence rebounds (+5 points), private investment flows resume.
  • Early signs of social cohesion emerge as technology is seen as shared property.

6–10 Years: Deepening Automation and Policy Divergence

Business-as-Usual

  • Automation reaches 40–50%; underemployment becomes the norm for half the workforce.
  • Welfare spending balloons to 30–40% of GDP; sovereign debt crises force austerity.
  • Gig economies and crypto speculation expand.
  • Crime rates and institutional distrust rise.

Fragmented Response

  • EU, ASEAN, MERCOSUR adopt variable AI-tax→dividend schemes.
  • “UBI Passports” allow stipend portability; coverage gaps remain.
  • Corporate social credits reward ethical consumption.
  • Cross-border data pacts spur tech-hub competition.

Global Mobilization

  • By 2032, 80% of nations fund a minimum Existence Dividend via AI taxes, carbon rents and data royalties.
  • New service sectors—ecosystem stewardship, health squads, creative collaboratives—absorb 40% of labor.
  • A “lifeway economy” emerges: 60% in civic roles, 40% in R&D and governance.
  • Harmonized labor mobility reduces migration pressures and stabilizes wages.

11–15 Years: Institutional Realignment vs. Social Fragmentation

Business-as-Usual

  • Major economies enter secular stagnation; GDP per capita plateaus or contracts.
  • Social safety nets collapse under debt burdens; food and housing insecurity spread.
  • Technological refugees pour across borders; many are confined or deported.
  • Authoritarian AI-surveillance regimes expand to contain unrest.

Fragmented Response

  • “Citizen Dividend Zones” in resource-rich regions; “Automation Penalty Zones” lag behind.
  • Black-market AI platforms and unlicensed robotics services proliferate.
  • “AI Resilience Funds” struggle to bridge global coverage gaps.
  • Civil society networks form cross-border alliances to pressure lagging states.

Global Mobilization

  • By 2038, a Humanhood Rights Protocol under U.N. charter guarantees food, shelter, mobility, education and digital participation.
  • Planetary AI cooperatives allocate dividends in real time via blockchain-backed ledgers.
  • Intergenerational equity metrics guide reinvestment in lifelong learning and regenerative infrastructure.
  • Global youth assemblies and elder councils codify participatory governance norms.

16–20 Years: From Crisis to Cohesion

Business-as-Usual

  • Technocratic oligarchies monopolize AI operations; wealth polarizes further.
  • AI-run assistance pods replace human-delivered social services.
  • Permanent global GDP contraction entrenches poverty in two-thirds of nations.

Fragmented Response

  • Innovation corridors—city-states and SEZs—thrive on post-scarcity tourism and digital nomadism.
  • Megacities host powerful Data Commons; rural areas remain under-resourced.
  • Sovereign debt defaults spark experiments in community currencies and DeFi.

Global Mobilization

  • The Universal Dignity Dividend matures: payments fund biosphere-restoration guilds and cooperative care networks.
  • Lifeways Portfolio Platforms empower individuals to choose roles in care, creativity and governance.
  • A Global Social Cohesion Index tracks trust, empathy and shared purpose at record highs.

21–25 Years: Stakes of Fragmentation vs. Promise of Unity

Business-as-Usual

  • Urban decay spreads outside elite enclaves; social services vanish for non-insiders.
  • Ungoverned “no-go zones” erupt into chaos.
  • Climate feedback loops exacerbate resource scarcity, deepening collapse.

Fragmented Response

  • City-state governance models proliferate: some metros thrive, others revert to subsistence.
  • Cross-city dividend exchanges create patchwork safety nets.
  • “Geo-financing” bonds link AI providers to local welfare sponsors via smart contracts.

Global Mobilization

  • A Planetary Commons Agreement extends stewardship to oceans, atmosphere and orbit.
  • AI-driven triage systems guarantee universal health, education and habitat resilience.
  • Mass festivals, Story Councils and peer economies cement a shared global identity.

26–35 Years: Divergent Destinies

Business-as-Usual

  • Human productivity atrophies; only AI enclaves generate real value.
  • Mass depopulation in neglected regions; rapid ecological decline.
  • Techno-police states deploy pervasive AI surveillance to manage disorder.

Fragmented Response

  • Hyper-efficient AI enclaves export dividends to sponsoring nations.
  • “Lifeway Islands” offer immersive post-scarcity experiences to a privileged few.
  • A bifurcated world emerges: metaverse jurisdictions versus analog communities.

Global Mobilization

  • By 2050+, Planetary Lifescapes arise — floating eco-cities, rewilded continents, regenerative farm belts.
  • Humans and AI co-create art-science symposia; digital twins steward Earth’s cycles.
  • Cosmic Commons Treaties formalize stewardship principles beyond Earth.

36–50 Years: The Final Reckoning

Business-as-Usual

  • Civilization fractures into walled techno-citadels and abandoned wilderness.
  • Global collapse materializes — only AI enclaves sustain minimal order.

Fragmented Response

  • A handful of “post-scarcity sanctuaries” preserve data, protocols and small-scale lifeways.
  • Most regions revert to traditional agrarian or tribal structures.

Global Mobilization

  • A flourishing planetary utopia: zero-cost commons, lifeways as civic pillars and biosphere-first policies.
  • Humanity embraces stewardship, creativity and cosmic kinship — Earth and beyond as one shared home.

Conclusion

We stand today at a three-pronged fork in history — each path defined by our willingness to act, postpone, or ignore the gathering storm of AI-driven upheaval:

The fork is before us. Which way will we turn? We encourage humanity to shine brighter than ever by choosing Global Mobilization. Automation can become a force for universal well-being, and for the first time in our species’ history, abundance and opportunity can belong to everyone.

Glossary of Key Concepts

Humanhood Rights Protocol
A global charter that enshrines basic civic entitlements—food, housing, mobility, health care, education and digital participation—as public‐infrastructure rights rather than means‐tested benefits. Codified under a U.N. framework by 2038, it guarantees every person’s dignity as a matter of law.
Universal Dignity Dividend
An unconditional, lifelong payment to every individual—funded by AI‐automation levies, carbon rents and data‐royalty fees. Unlike traditional welfare, it requires no work or means test and automatically scales as machine productivity grows.
Existence Dividend
A foundational stipend during the first five years of Global Mobilization, designed to cover essentials: food, water, shelter and basic connectivity. It establishes the minimum floor beneath which no one may fall.
Automation Dividend
A tax on the value created by automated systems and AI, redirected into public coffers. It replaces declining payroll taxes and ensures that gains from machine labor fund shared social goods.
Care Credits
A time‐bank currency that quantifies and rewards unpaid caregiving—childcare, eldercare, therapeutic support—on a one‐hour‐for‐one‐credit basis. Credits can be exchanged for goods or professional services, elevating care work as economic value.
Lifeways
A spectrum of socially valuable roles—caregiver, healer, artist, steward—chosen freely in an abundant economy. Lifeways replace “jobs” as the unit of human contribution, recorded via digital portfolios and time‐credits.
AI as Utility
The concept of operating core AI systems as public infrastructure—managed by governments or cooperatives and free at the point of use for civic applications such as healthcare diagnostics, environmental monitoring and legal aid.
Synthetic Labor
Automated networks of robots and algorithms deployed to meet ecological and social targets—reforestation, eldercare, waste sorting— under public or cooperative governance rather than for pure profit.
Data Trusts
Community‐governed repositories where individuals pool, anonymize and license personal data. Trust members receive dividends from data‐driven research, while privacy and equitable use are enforced by a public charter.
Planetary AI Cooperatives
Decentralized networks of open‐source AI nodes coordinating energy grids, food systems, health services and climate resilience. Governed by multi‐stakeholder councils, they allocate “machine labor” as a collective resource.
Planetary Commons Agreement
An international treaty extending commons governance to Earth’s critical systems—oceans, atmosphere, biodiversity corridors and near‐Earth orbit. It establishes shared stewardship councils and levies ecological usage charges.
Planetary Lifescapes
Integrated living environments—floating eco‐cities, rewilded agricultural belts and regenerative urban corridors—designed for sustainability, community and a seamless blend of built and natural worlds.
Global Social Cohesion Index
A composite metric tracking trust, empathy, civic participation and mutual aid across societies. It guides policy and investment to strengthen collective well‐being rather than merely measuring GDP.
Cosmic Commons Treaties
Forward‐looking accords that apply stewardship principles beyond Earth—to space habitats, asteroid resources and interstellar listening networks—ensuring expansion is driven by mutual care and scientific exchange, not commercial conquest.